Much of the energy fueling a Democratic and progressive surge this year comes from highly motivated women activists. |
If progressives were disappointed by the choices
voters made at the top of the ballot
in the Illinois Primary on Tuesday, they had a lot to celebrate in other races where they did just fine, thank you. In fact, they shifted the center of gravity among Democrats substantially to the left
and proved the power of their activist-driven grass roots style is effective.
3rd Congressional
District
Even
in the most high-profile race which
got national attention and which the
progressive favorite lost by an eyelash
was a win of sorts. The story of that race is actually astonishing. Marie
Newman was one of the wave of women
candidates motivated by Hillary
Clinton’s loss and Donald Trumps ascension
as a President determined to un-do every
progressive advance since the New Deal. Although
a veteran activist who had had directed a national anti-bullying nonprofit and was Illinois spokesperson for the gun control group Moms Demand Action, Marie Newman was virtually unknown to the public. As late as February, after months of campaigning, her own internal poll showed a name recognition in the 3rd District of only 13%. And she was an abortion rights defender in a heavily
Catholic District with many conservative
white ethnic voters that stretches from Chicago’s Southwest Side through largely blue-collar suburbs to the cornfields around Romeoville.
Progressive feminist Marie Newman nearly upset Blue Dog Dem Dan Lipinski. |
By contrast her opponent could have been the dictionary example of an entrenched incumbent. Dan Lipinski had already served seven terms in Congress and commanded a well
oiled political organization with the firm
backing of the Cook County and state party apparatus. Moreover, he was the scion of a political dynasty
sometimes called the Polish
Kennedys. Dan’s father, William preceded
him in Congress and after several terms handed the District over to his son on a platter. Together
father and son sat in Congress for 35 years.
Already
noted as staunch anti-abortion politician, Lipinski proved to be one of the most conservative Democrats in Congress
on a wide range of issues frequently
supporting Republicans in critical votes. He was an ardent opponent of Barack
Obama’s Affordable Care Act and voted repeatedly to repeal it. He also balked on civil rights issues, Gay rights, gun control, and immigration reform. Lipinski
became the chair of the notorious Blue Dog caucus of
conservative Democrats and the target of liberal
and progressive scorn. Yet party leaders defended Lipinski for “reflecting his district.”
As
late as January polls showed Newman down 24 points to the incumbent. But that was better than other underfunded upstart challenger had ever
managed, and her activist fueled campaign was showing signs of life.
Encouraged Emily’s List, NARAL
Pro-Choice America, Planned
Parenthood, and other liberal and progressive organizations began to
heavily invest in the campaign with money,
professional expertise, and even boots on the ground. The Blue Dogs rallied to Lipinski’s defense
along with hefty expenditures by the
allegedly centrist groups No Labels and Country Forward, and faux
feminist anti-abortion organization
Susan B. Anthony List. The race
became a proxy fight between factions vying for control of the
Party.
While
Lipinski’s influx of money kept him
treading water, Newman use hers to create
a groundswell of support. In the end
she fell just a hair short. Two more days of hard campaigning might have pushed her over the top. As of
Wednesday morning, she trailed
Lipinski 49% to 51% with 98% of precincts
reporting only 2,124 votes down.
Feminists
and progressives were elated by what had
been accomplished and status quo,
establishment Democrats were thrown
into a panic with similar races coming up in several districts around the
country.
Closer to my home, progressives won
nominations in crowded fields for two seats where entrenched Republicans are believed
to be in danger this fall—the 6th and
14th Districts. Neither of those two candidates are the ones I endorsed in those races, but it
is a tribute to the talent depth of the field that there were multiple outstanding candidates to
choose from. I am entirely satisfied with the choices voters made and both winners
have excellent prospects against now vulnerable
Republicans.
6th Congressional
District
Sean Casten scored a win in his race with his platform for action on climate change, the environment, and respect for science. |
Those trends naturally attracted national attention and the district is
now considered a winnable swing
district. In the end Sean Casten, a Downers Grove environmental engineer and entrepreneur ran largely on climate
issues, respect for science, and creative
economic development emerged at the top
of a field of seven. Casten was
rated the favorite in the race and
drew support from national environmental
PACs, Democratic organizations, as well as key Illinois Democrats. He ran a smart,
well financed campaign with enough money for significant media buys.
Kelly Mazeski, a former chemist and financial advisor, who made healthcare
and women’s rights her signature issues gave Casten a close race. Endorsed by Emily’s List and a slew women
in Congress led by Jan Schakowsky. She was also my pick. Mazeski held a
slender lead late into the night while thousands of DuPage county ballots could
not be counted because of a computer
glitch. When they were finally
accessed Wednesday morning Casten went ahead
18,863 to 16,686 with the other candidates trailing
behind.
Mazeski
graciously conceded and pledged to
support and work with Casten to defeat incumbent
Pete Roskam, as did the others in the race.
Democrats and progressive in the district will be united going forward.
Together
all the Democrats got 62,990 votes. Final totals for Roskam, who ran unopposed in the Republican
primary, have surprisingly not been released, but given the strong Democratic
turn out on election day I would not be surprised if his totals were less.
The
District, which was already listed as one of the top 10 most competitive in the
country, just heated up even more.
Roskam, who trailed in fundraising through the primaries, is sitting on
a $ 2 million plus campaign fund and can expect money to come pouring in from
the Party and from a plethora of right-wing PACS. That will be matched by the Democratic Congressional Campaign fund,
Democratic National Committee, and a
host of liberal, progressive, and environmental funds. Expect one of the most expensive races in
this election cycle.
In addition,
Casten will benefit from a strong local activist base and will attract
volunteers and canvassers from
around the country. Dems will have the boots on the ground advantage.
In
addition to his environmental themes Casten will hit Roskam hard on his votes
to kill the Affordable Care Act, for the disastrous
tax bill, immigration reform, and abortion
rights. He will also slam the
incumbent for dodging town hall meetings
and other opportunities to hear from
constituents since Trump’s
election. He will probably continue to
evade all but the most tightly controlled public appearances and agree to as
few debates or candidate forums as possible.
He will run an expensive media campaign and be heavily dependent on attack
ads placed by those right wing PACS.
Expect
a tight and exciting race.
14th Congressional
District
Lauren Underwood on the line with supporters calling out Randy Hultgren on health care. That focus resonated with voters. |
Despite
the national spotlight on the 6th
District, Lauren Underwood’s achievement
in the 14th was even more impressive
and could portend almost
revolutionary change in the sprawling
district, another longtime Republican stronghold. Underwood was a blow out winner in a seven-person race earning 28,047 votes, 57% of
the total vote. She left Mathew Brolley, the highly touted Mayor of Montgomery, who
had the almost unanimous support of party leaders, local elected Democrats, labor,
and most of the newspapers, in the dust of second place with only 6,538 votes, 13.4%. My pick, Jim
Walz who ran against incumbent Randy
Hultgren two years ago and exceeded expectations, lagged in third place
with 4,796 votes and 9.8%.
Underwood,
a registered nurse and former senior policy advisor in Barack Obama’s
Department of Health and Human Services, ran a campaign focused on health
care and women’s rights. Her campaign picked up steam with the critical support of Emily’s List and Off the Sidelines PAC which enabled her to get on the air and in social
media with an effective advertising campaign. But a raft
of dedicated activist volunteers,
many of them inspired by the Women’s
March and by Medicare for All
campaigns, really fueled her success across the District.
As
her strength as a candidate became more obvious, many Party leaders backing
Brolley were thrown into a near panic
because they were convinced a Black
woman could not win in an overwhelmingly
White district. But they were unable to get an effective handle on an
attack ad campaign by surrogates that did not come off as blatantly racist. Ms.
Underwood’s closet seems uncluttered by any whiff of scandal. And while the District certainly has its
share of Trump supporters with white
panic over losing place and privilege, establishment Dems seem to forget voters embraced Barack
Obama and that Black candidates like Secretary
of State Jesse White have frequently out
performed the rest of the Democratic ticket.
Underwood
is an attractive, articulate, and
charismatic campaigner who connects
with even skeptical voters at public
events. With a high turn-out of motivated Democrats and independents a discouraged
and fragmented Republican base that
may not turn out in their usual numbers either because they despise Trump on one hand or believe
that Governor Rauner has betrayed the
conservative agenda, Underwood has a real shot at carrying off a real upset
in November.
It
is possible that Democrats could end up surrounding
Chicago and Cook County Democratic Congressional Districts including the Lakefront 10th District already
represented by Brad Schneider,
through the 6th and 14th, to Bill Foster’s
11th District in the southwest
suburbs. And wouldn’t that shake
things up!
👍
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