Election 2018—Much to Celebrate but Some Flies in the Ointment

Democrats celebrating gains in the House of Representatives.  Women, young people, and minorities propelled those wins.

It was a roller coaster night for Democrats, progressives, and those who hope to stop a slide into fascism.  But on the whole, there is much to celebrate.  I don’t mean to go into great detail, but here are some high and low lights and my take on them.

Despite the determined efforts of some TV pundits to pooh-pah a Blue Wave in the House and the significance gains Democrats did make—I’m looking at you Chuck Todd—it looks like Democrats not only take back the House, but will exceed most expectations after results of some tight races are called especially in California where a lumbering vote counting procedure can take weeks to announce final results.  Dems will probably end up with a net gain of nearly 40 seats which will prevent the defection of a handful of Blue Dog Democratic conservatives from advancing the Trump agenda in the House.

Even more impressive, Democrats topped Republicans by about 9% in all House votes cast in the nation.  Their gains would have been more impressive except for the heavily gerrymandered districts drawn by GOP legislatures.

But Democratic gains in a number of key races for governor and flipping some state legislative houses they now have a shot a drawing more equitable election maps after the 2020 census.  Despite a tough, narrow losses in Florida and Texas Senate races by rising Dem stars Andrew Gillum and Beto O’Roark and a still undecided Georgia race by Stacy Adams that is headed to court and a possible run-off election, Dems picket up 7 executive mansions previously held by Republicans including open seats in Maine, Michigan, Kansas, New Mexico, and Nevada and ousted two incumbent Governors, Wisconsin’s loathsome union buster Scott Walker, and Illinois’ disastrous Bruce Rauner.  Women won four of the open seats including a stunning victory by Laura Kelly in deep Red Kansas.

 

A lot of Democrats took the narrow loss of charismatic Texas progressive hard.  But the magnitude of his achievements in raising enromous amounts of cash from individual donors shunning PACs and special interests and in personally runing his direct-to-the -people campain appearing in every one of the Lone Star State's 200+ counties cannot be underestimated.  He redefined what  is possible in Texas and is a rising star for the progressive wing of the party.

In fact it was women who propelled Democratic victories across the country by not only showing up at the polls in record numbers but as fresh new candidates.  That included numbers of African Americans, Hispanics, two Muslims, two Native Americans, as well as some veterans.  The heavy shift of women, who out participate men in elections, is bad news for Republican who are widely viewed as the party of misogyny, because many former Republican women have probably left their old party for good.

Worse for the GOP, Millennials showed up to the polls in Droves and Democrats captured most of them.  Younger voters were particularly motivated by social issues including the protection of Gay and Transgender rights, gun regulation in the wake of school shootings and mass murders, equitable and fair immigration and asylum, a hope for relief from crushing student loan debt, and a general revulsion at racism, xenophobia, and anti-Semitism that has been fostered in the Republican base by Trump.  The wave of the Millennials already outnumbers aging Baby Boomers.

Young voters lining up to vote in Minnesotta.  Not only dide they show up to the polls in eyepoping numbers, they energied campaigns across the country.

In the wake of Trump’s success in Senate races in his base states, he has put his brand and stamp on the Republican Party.  Many so-called moderates in both houses—a half a generation ago most of them would have been considered hard conservatives themselves—have either retired or been ousted in House, replaced by Trump loyalists.  Trump has cut off appeal to Latin and Black voters, the LBGTQ community as well as women and young people.  His is the party of aging white men.  But whites will be a minority in the United States within twenty years and his base vote will slowly die off and fade away replaced by today’s young voters.  The future of the Republican Party is indeed bleak unless they can pull a rabbit out of hat.

A screen shot of NBC calling the Illinois governor race for J.B. Pritzker.

 If the Blue Wave did not impress Chuck Todd nationally, in Illinois it was a virtual tsunami.  Led by J.B. Pritzker his Lt. Governor running mate Juliana Stratton, plenty of cash to spread around, and fired-up armies of volunteers Democrats swept all statewide offices without breaking a sweat, picked up two suburban House Seats—Sean Casten in the 6th District and Lauren Underwood in the 14th--, increased their majorities in the state House and Senate, reached down to the county and local level boosting Democrats in Red suburban and Collar County races.  

Lauren Underwood celebrating her historic win in the drawn-for-Republican Illinois 14th Congressional Distict with supporters.

But Pritzker, who carried some baggage as a Billionaire who evaded property taxes by removing toilets from and empty mansion next door to his Gold Coast home, was actually outperformed by his down-ticket running mates including Kwame Raoul for Attorney General, Michael Frerichs for Treasurer, and Susana Mendoza for Comptroller.  Jesse White, the perennially popular Secretary of State won a sixth term with 69.4% of the vote topped the ticket.

Meanwhile McHenry County showed that it is still a tough nut to crack Republican stronghold with loyal voters showing up in droves on Election Day to counter strong Democratic turnout among early voters.  Yet the nut was at least cracked even if all the meat could not be extracted.

Sean Casten won his portion of the County although Lauren Underwood, despite a tremendous ground-game campaign and many visits here could not win her part.  She made up for that for that in Kane and DuPage Counties to win anyway. 

Jesse White was the only state candidate to carry McHenry, but he has won here before and is popular from regular appearances of his Jesse White Tumblers in local parades and festivals.

Democrats were blanked in State Senate and House races although Nancy Zettler came close in the 33rd House District with 48.73% of the vote.

Kelli Wegener was one of three Democrats who made it onto the McHenry County Board.

The real good news is that due to McHenry County’s quirky three member County Board system with no more than two seats open in off-year elections Democrats were able to pick up three seats bring a grand total to 4 out of 18 seats.  That will be the most Dems in living memory on the board.  Democrats Michael Vuuk in District 1, Suzzane Ness in District 2, and Kelli Wegener in District 3 all finished second three person races to win a Board seat.  Carlos Accosta in District 4 came within 187 votes in his race.

The Cheeto-in-Charge is gloating about his Red state Senate wins and will probably double down on the divisive rhetoric and hardly veiled racism that he believes won the day.  He has not yet grasp the peril that a Democratic House majority represents for him.

The bad news of Election night, of course, was the U.S. Senate where Trump’s relentless red meat rallies helped fire-up his base in an election map that heavily favored Republicans, They will increase their majority in the Senate by at least two despite Jacky Rossen flipping a seat Blue in Nevada.  Republicans turned out Democratic incumbents in Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota.  Democrats staved off challengers in deep Red West Virginia and in Montana.  Races are still too close to call in Florida where incumbent Senator Bill Nelson is within .4% of current Governor Rick Scott and in Arizona where Democrat Kyrsten Simemea currently trails Martha McSally by .9%.  Both races will turn on absentee and provisional ballots and may result in re-counts.

Firm control of the Senate is most dangerous because it will give a free pass to boatloads of Trump hyper-reactionary judicial appointments, including one or two possible Supreme Court openings in the next four years.  Those lifetime appointments will warp the courts for decades and will be extremely dangerous for free speech, minorities, voting rights, reproductive rights, Gay and transgender rights, immigrants and asylum seekers, labor, general civil liberties, environmental regulation while being sympathetic to corporations and Christian pleas for exemption from many laws and regulations on the grounds of supposed freedom of conscience. 

Perhaps even more immediately dangerous, his Red state victories have confirmed to Trump that his instinct to use immigration as scare tactic, attacks on the press, and tacit approval White Nationalism and violence.  Chances are that he will double down on all of that.  He may even turn to his base for protection should the Mueller investigation get close to him, House Democrats unearth irrefutable evidence of criminal behavior in his personal or business affairs or prove collusion with the Russians.  He is not above raising the specter of civil war or even of pulling the trigger on one if cornered.

He will also continue to try to rule by executive fiat with growing confidence that a sympathetic court will not stop him.

The United States will undergo huge racial, ethnic, and age demographic changes in coming decades.  The Party of Old White Men is doomed.

The problem for Democrats is that at least until the demographic and generational changes discussed above fully kick in they are at a complete disadvantage in the Senate, which guarantees two Senators for each State serving six year terms.  Blame the Founders and the compromise between large and small states engineered by James Madison as the price of ratification of the Constitution.  Today the Southern, Border, and Western states carried by Trump in 2012 minus Florida, Texas, Missouri, and Arizona have a combined total 34 Senators despite having a total population less the California which has only two. 

We are hearing talk of a Constitutional Amendment base Senate representation on population.  But there are only three ways to accomplish that.  A new Constitutional Convention could be called, but that would open the entire document to revision perhaps putting the guarantees of the Bill of Rights in jeopardy.  No one outside the far-right fringes seriously supports a new Convention and they aren’t the folks likely to change the Senate.

Since small states will not to vote to reduce their influence in Congress there is no hope to reform Senate representation by Constitutional Amendment.

Both Congress and the States themselves can initiate a proposed amendment.  But Article 5 requires 3/4 of all the states to ratify an amendment for it to take effect.  It beggars the imagination that the many states with small populations would voluntarily vote to reduce their own influence in Congress. 

The Senate as we know it is here to stay whether we like it or not.  Even if Democrats win an overwhelming Presidential victory in 2020 and increase their majorities in the House they would likely still face a hostile Senate and definitely be restrained by a hostile court.

There are no easy paths in the continuing struggle ahead.  But continue to struggle we must.

The Murfin List—Endorsements for the 2016 Election—Hillary for President

Note—Since the birth of this blog over at LiveJournal ten years ago, it has been my custom to endorse candidates in bi-annual general elections.  I used to do this a week or so before Election Day.  But the growing popularity and importance of early voting have rendered that schedule stupid and ineffective.  But I kept doing it out of habit.  Well it turns out an old dog can learn new tricks.  So a week into early voting in Illinois this gray muzzled, bloated, and half blind old hound is getting around to it.  Throw me a MilkBone...but you probably have to soak it first, the teeth ain’t what they used to be either.

Of course being a highly partisan Democrat—I bleed blue—does not leave room for many surprises.  I am not, however a Yellow Dog, or a Blue Dog and on rare occasion have strayed from the yard when the Dems have offered outright crooks, morons, or right wing shills.

The value of these essays, if they have any, is not so much in the list of approved candidates, but in the analysis of their strengths and the dynamics of the races.  We will start today with Federal offices and work down ballot to the state and county levels over the next two days. 

For President—Hillary Clinton

Ok, no surprise here.  You knew it was coming.  As many faithful readers know, I was an early and strong supporter of Senator Bernie Sanders in the primaries. The old Socialist better reflected my views and philosophy than any Presidential candidate in my life time, no contest.  But, even though we disagreed on some issues—particularly her hawkish proclivities and way-too-cozy relationship a State of Israel that has lost its moral compass—I always personally admired Hillary and never for an instant doubted her readiness for the office, her personal decency, or her commitment—however shaped by pragmatism and incrementalism—to economic and social justice.

But as the long a brutal primary season dragged on, I became increasingly alarmed by the shrill hysteria of those who became known as Bernier-or-Busters who took every half-baked conspiracy theory thrown at Clinton over decades in public life by a relentless right wing smear campaign, amplified them, and created their own.  Along the way they maligned and abused anyone who disagreed with them alienating traditional feminists and older women as well as her strong and wide support in the Black and Latino communities.  When they felt a backlash for their attacks, the Busters reacted as if they were the blameless victims of a wide conspiracy.

When Clinton secured the nomination, despite the endorsement and pleas of Bernie Sanders, many of the Busters vowed never to vote for Clinton.  They talked of writing in Sanders, jumping to Jill Stein and the Greens, Libertarian Gary Johnson, or picking up their toys and not voting at all.

Ironically, Hillary’s hardcore supporters made similar vows after she lost to Barack Obama in 2008.  But despite the hopes and dreams of the Republicans and the McCain campaign, by Election Day almost all of them returned to the fold and contributed to Obama’s historic victory.

I had hoped for the same this year.  And many Sanders supporters have come along, some reluctantly, and other like myself fully confident the Clinton could make a great President.  But polling showed a lack of enthusiasm among Millennial voters many of whom had become convinced that there was no essential or moral difference between Clinton and Republican Donald Trump by the relentless negativity about Hillary that they heard from the left as well as the right.  It began to look like Clinton, the first major party woman candidate, would not be able to raise the broad and enthusiastic coalition that made Obama the first Black President.

As a result, after a strong post-convention bump, Trump’s rabidly loyal following began to close the gap on Clinton’s lead in late August and into September.  She slipped into second place in some polls in important battleground states like Ohio and Florida.

Donald Trump is self-destructing.

Then the wheels flew off the Trump campaign stretch limo beginning with his disastrous performance and Clinton’s cool mastery in the first debate.  Then in rapid succession came a string of bizarre Trump utterances and Tweets including sustained attacks on a former Miss Universe, critical reporters, attacks on Clinton for her marriage despite his own long history of infidelities and verbal abuse and harassment of women, and his sneering dismissal of veterans with Post Traumatic Stress Syndrome as weak.  The press, meanwhile, unraveled new scandals involving his use of his charitable foundation as a private piggy bank and old tax returns revealed that the supposedly brilliant business man lost nearly a Billion Dollars in one year and as a result probably paid not income taxes at all for several years, probably down to this year.  

Early in the primary campaigns as the press was scratching its head over a string of victories, Trump boasted that he could shoot someone in Times Square and not lose support.  A lot of Americans have become so alienated and angry as their personal prospects and fortunes faded that they were willing to cheer on and stand by the swaggering bully who promised to stick it to those they blamed for their bleak lives—a snotty liberal elite, immigrants, noisy Blacks, entitled women, and, of course Muslim terrorists.  None of the current revelations or displays of Trump’s pettiness, cruelty, and sociopathic behavior will probably make a dent in it.

But many Republicans, including traditional conservatives who were earlier willing to hold their noses and support the ticket are abandoning the sinking ship and scrambling to prevent contagious down ballot catastrophe.  The dwindling number of true undecideds are shifting en masse to Clinton.  And finally the sheer awfulness of the alternative has sunk in and reluctant Millennials and Busters are shifting to her as well.  There is even evidence that Clinton has begun to overcome her sullied image with a more positive picture of her as woman and public servant.

Jill Stein and the Greens--deeply flawed custodians of Bernie or Bust and social democratic hopes.

If there were ever a year when the Green Party should have broken through to a claim as THE party of the U.S. left, this should have been it.  If you listened to all of those Bernie-or-Busters just after the Convention, you might have become convinced that it could happen—and that it could spell Ralph Nader type doom to Hillary’s electoral chances just as they once allegedly had sunk Al Gore in Florida.  But it just isn’t happening.  Jill Stein is struggling to keep a 1% sliver of the vote.  Where ever they are going, the tsunami of Millennials to the Greens hasn’t risen above the ankles of a derelict beach bum.

Part of the blame goes to the Green Party itself, which is poorly organized in most states and hardly at all in others.  It is also only reluctantly accepted the mantle of a social democratic party, but it lacks almost any ties to labor or minority voters without whom such a party cannot succeed.  It is still largely a club of middle class white folks, aging hippies, tofu eaters, and Prius drivers.  Even the Party’s efforts to extend its appeal to Black voters with the selection of Ajamu Baraka as Stein’s running mate has fallen short.

Baraka’s background, while impressive is almost entirely in international solidarity work with Latin America, Palestine, and the Middle East.  He has no strong ties or relations with either the older Civil Rights establishment that backs Clinton or the younger generation of Black Lives Matter activists.  But then, he hardly has an opportunity to build those bridges because the party is focused almost entirely on Stein as if a Black man might scare some Busters.

Stein, in her second spin as Green nominee, also must shoulder much of the blame.  While it was refreshing to see her participate in civil disobedience during a Dakota Pipe Line protest with Standing Rock Sioux for which a warrant has been sworn out for her arrest, firebrand Dem loyalist Senator Elizabeth Warren has out shown her in denouncing the oligarchy and advocating specific reforms in banking law.  And then there is the uncomfortable truth that despite being a doctor, Stein has gone out of her way to embrace the anti-vaccination fringe and make other questionable scientific claims.

Gary Johnson--just another Ayn Rand fan boy and hopelessly ignorant about the world.

It is said that some of the missing Millennials will vote Libertarian—a very odd choice for enthusiasts of Bernie Sander’s democratic socialist agenda.  The Libertarians, and Gary Johnson—a former wing-nut governor of New Mexico—represent the antithesis of progressive reform or revolution.  They are steadfast for the extreme individualism and property worship of Ayn Rand’s brand of frat-boy sociopathy.  But Libertarians are for legalizing pot and prostitution and sound cool.  Some were earlier attracted to former Congressman Rand Paul’s opposition to the Iraq and Afghanistan wars.  Johnson has displayed complete ignorance of and interest in foreign affairs and sounds hawkish when he does spout off.

But Johnson has been successful in providing a safe haven for Republicans who can’t stomach Donald Trump and can’t bring themselves to vote for the despised and vilified Hillary Clinton.  That would account for his 10% and growing standings in the polls.  The Chicago Tribune and a handful of other traditional Republican newspapers have even endorsed him despite his manifest unfitness to serve and his crack-pot dismantle-the-government schemes.

The notoriously ideologically prickly Libertarians with an eye on the main chance handed them by Trump’s nomination, picked a decidedly non-libertarian mainstream Massachusetts ex-governor, William Weld for the Vice Presidential slot.  Weld, who had hit a brick wall in his political career, was meant as a wink-and-a-nod to Republican regulars that in office, Johnson would govern pragmatically. 

In the end Donald Trump is much more harmed by a third party insurgency eating away at his base on the right than Clinton is by the desertions on the left.  Which is driving the already half-deranged Bernie-or-Busters completely over the edge.

Speaking of Vice Presidential nominees, we should note the major party Veep picks.  Donald Trump sucks so much oxygen out of the room that Hillary Clinton struggles for attention that is not merely reactive to Trump antics and outrages, leaving little opportunity for either Vice Presidential candidate to attract much attention since their nominations.  In fact, the bottom half of both tickets have been strangers to headlines and soundbites and been relegated to further in the back seat than any other running mates going back to Franklin Roosevelt’s rotating cast.

Gov. Mike Pence carries water for the Religious Right while posing as a reasonable Republican who can calm Trump's hair-on-fire crazy excess.

Last night, Virginia Senator Tim Kaine and Indiana Governor Mike Pence emerged from the shadows for their one and only spotlight turn in the Vice Presidential Debate.  Many argue that Pence, calm, controlled, and handsomely barbered won the debate by simply not being Donald Trump.  He wore I-am-not-crazy like a neon suit, a living, breathing plea to off the reservation Republicans to come back home to Jesus.

By contrast the more casually disheveled and informal Kaine defied his nice guy persona to be the traditional vice-presidential attack dog, refusing to let Pence off the hook for Trump’s outrages and insults.  That left Pence bobbing and weaving to keep from endorsing overt bigotry while being a loyal second banana.  Trying to stick to indefensible policy, Pence’s defense was limited to a general so’s-yer-ol’-lady bleat about an insult campaign.

Senator Tim Kaine brought an affable personality to the Clinton campaign in need of a lighter touch, but proved himself a punch and jab debater.  

Kaine won on points, according to most score cards having landed more—and more effective—blows on Trump’s insults to women, tax dodging, and Putin ass-kissing.  But more wringing hand pundits fretted that Kaine’s aggressive style and talking over his opponent and the moderator may have alienated voters who wanted the candidates to play nice.  I understand the yearning for civility, but in the year of Trump, Kaine could not come off as a bully by comparison.  As the even usually clueless Chuck Todd noted, it was just a lively political debate of the type that would have been expected in any previous campaign.

In the end, each candidate did what was needed for his ticket and refrained from inflicting any damage.  With voters concentrating on the Presidential heavyweights, few, if any, minds were changed, but some jumpiness among marginal supporters of each may have been assuaged.

But all of the above is just horse race blather.  The fact is that Hillary Clinton is not only the only qualified candidate in the race, her very often derided pragmatism has shored up her most progressive impulses on domestic social and economic policy issues.

I urge you to cast an enthusiastic vote for an accomplished woman.  It’s about time.

Tomorrow—The Illinois Senate race and Congressional races in the Northwest boonies.