Over
the last couple of decades Illinois has
gone from a swing state in Presidential elections to being among
the deepest and most reliably Blue States along with the likes of Massachusetts, New York,
and California. It has gone for every Democratic Presidential
candidate since Bill Clinton in 1992.
Not only does it deliver a
near landslide popular vote and
reliable Electoral College vote, but
it keeps both Senate seats in Democratic hands, as well as almost all
state-wide offices. If it once showed a soft spot for Republican
governors despite the shenanigans
of bad-boy Rod Blagojevich the disastrous term of millionaire “reformer” Bruce Rauner may have put an end to that
exception.
In
the days of the old Daley Machine the
Democratic vote out of Chicago, along with enclaves
downstate was pretty evenly matched by GOP
turn out in the rest of the state and especially by suburban Cook County. But
migrating Chicagoans stopped shedding their Democratic loyalties the instant
they crossed into the County and now most, if not all of Cook is
Democratic. Similar movements spread to
the collar counties giving Democrats
control of Lake and Will Counties as well as making inroads in former
Republican bastions like DuPage and McHenry.
All
of this played out predictably this
year in Illinois which was once nearly
alone among upper Midwest rust belt
states to remain reliably Democrat. Joe Biden easily carried the state by a
56.5% to 42.6% margin. Dick Durbin, the second ranking Senate Democrat coasted to a fifth term even though
his margin was narrowed by gadfly Willie
Wilson, a Black millionaire who
previously ran for Mayor of
Chicago. Wilson’s candidacy seemed to be
encouraged and abetted by Republicans to syphon
off some Black votes. Wilson did get
4% of the vote, but not enough to help out Republican nominee Mark Curran who could only muster a pitiful 40.5%.
The
big news state-wide was the resounding defeat of the Fair Tax Amendment for a progressive
income tax backed by Governor J. B.
Pritzker to both address the state’s long term budget woes and deal with the economic
impact of the Coronavirus pandemic. Millions of dollars were spent on both sides
for massive TV and other media buys. The pro-tax campaign was out of the gate
earlier and seemed to be attracting wide support. Enter Illinois billionaires who funded a late ad blitz aimed at convincing,
against all proof that the “politicians”
will come after the middle-class and
retirees next. Anti-tax sentiment helped fuel Trump support
in parts of the state, including McHenry
County.
Although
it was not on the ballot Covid-19
and restrictions to combat the
current second wave surge. Early on Governor Pritzker’s firm response along with Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s aggressive policy helped keep Illinois from becoming a national hot
spot. But the state is surrounded by
Wisconsin, Indiana, and Iowa where
wide-open policies inevitably led to disastrous
surges that could not be stopped at the border. As Illinois numbers spiked to new records
Pritzker imposed tight new restrictions
on every zone in the state two days
before the election. It was deeply unpopular with businesses, particularly the hard-hit
hospitality and personal services industries
as well as with Covid-weary folks
fearful of a new lockdown over a long winter. Schools
that had begun to cautiously reopen
were forced to roll-back in-person
learning and return to virtual
computer classes to the dismay of frazzled
parents.
Like
the tax issue these resentments fed
Trump’s claims that the pandemic was largely a phony issue, a hoax, and
that the economy needed to opened up and damn the
torpedoes. Restaurants and bars in
McHenry County and elsewhere announced that they would defy new restriction and local
Republican office holders catered to them and egged on defiance.
Meanwhile
Democrats managed to retain their
seats in the House of Representatives including
well established Jan Schakowsky and Brad Schneider on the North Shore and Bill Foster in the south
west ‘burbs. Progressive new comer Marie
Newman handily won the seat formerly held by conservative anti-choice Representative Dan Lipinski. First termer Raja Krishnamoorthi swamped a
Republican challenger.
Freshmen
Sean Casten (6th District) and Lauren Underwood (14th District) both
won office in deep red districts and had a harder re-election campaign. Casten, a businessman/scientist who has become one of the leading environmentalists in Congress beat back a strong Republican
challenger and was able to claim victory
on Wednesday with 52.1% of the vote over extreme
right-wing firebrand Jeanie Ives.
Underwood—my
Representative—is a young Black woman from
an overwhelmingly White district.
Despite her strong record as a leading health care reformer who kept close
contact with voters through frequent district
visits, town halls, and
attendance at important local events, Underwood has narrowly lagged milk magnate and you-name-it-I’ll-run-for-it
Jim Oberweis. Trump clone Oberweis
declared victory Wednesday but Underwood has refused to concede with thousands
of mail-in, absentee, and overseas ballots yet to be counted. Many of those are from Democratic leaning Lake County and McHenry County
where Democrats overwhelmingly voted by mail.
As results trickled in, Underwood has steadily eroded Oberweis’s
election night 800 vote lead. Both she
and many observers believe there are more than enough votes for her that are
yet to be counted or reported to put her over the top. Perversely,
alone of all County Clerks in her
district, Republican Joe Tirio is
not reporting those ballots as they come in but will not announce them until
the official canvas on November
18. Underwood should win.
Of
all of the Collar Counties, McHenry was most influenced by the late Trump
surge. Democrats here have been able to
score victories in some recent national and state-wide elections. Notably it went for Obama, Senators Durbin and Tammy
Duckworth, and several state candidates most notably Secretary of State Jesse White have carried the county while
locally Dems have begun to win County
Board races. But this year Trump
easily carried the county by a 51% to 47% margin. Durbin lost 45% to 50% with 2% going to
Willie Wilson in an overwhelmingly White county.
Sean
Casten in the 6th District narrowly carried the county as of Wednesday but
Loren Underwood in the 14th had apparently lost the county as of election
night. Both however, benefited by the
Democrats strong push for early voting and even with County Clerk Tirio’s determination
not to release additional ballots opened after election night. Casten will widen his lead and virtually all
observers now believe that Underwood will gain enough votes for re-election.
The biggest shock of the night was Jack Franks’ bid for re-election as County Board Chair to virtually unknown political neophyte Mike Buehler by a 53% to 47% margin even wider than Biden’s loss in the county. Franks became the first Democrat in decades to break through total Republican dominance when he narrowly won a seat in the state House of Representatives in 1998 and went on to be re-elected eight more times by increasing margins and often with no opponent. He was one of the most popular elected officials in the county and attracted state-wide notice for leading the attack on scandal tainted Governor Rod Blagojevich. He was also a meticulous, aggressive campaigner. He turned his attention to the McHenry County Board and heavily promoted the voter referendum that switched from a County Board Chair elected from their own ranks by members of the Board to a chair elected directly by county voters. Then he stepped into the job he created in 2016. As board chair he promoted shrinking the size of the board and aggressive budget cuts. He cast himself as a Tax Fighter and pressed other local government bodies including school boards to match the 10% across the board cuts he made to the county budget. Republican resented him stealing their tax slashing issue and chaffed at his attempts to extend the executive authority of the Board Chair.
But
this time out, after un-proven
allegations of improper sexual
harassment during his years in Springfield,
Republicans finally had an opportunity to paint him as a corrupt politician, not a crusading
reformer. It seemed to take the wind out of Franks’ sails.
By his own admission this time he did not significant fundraising
relying on existing reserves in his campaign fund. He did not campaign aggressively, failed to mount his signature letter to the editor campaign in which
his loyal supporters submitted
letters over their own signature that were crafted by the campaign, published
and circulated little literature, and bought almost no advertising. He claimed that he could rely on the fact
that he had never lost an election and
his reputation. Republican showered Buehler
with cash that he spent on lavish direct mail campaigns and tons of signs. Franks strikes me as to smart a politician to
be so self-deluded.
Another
avenue for an attack on Franks was an attack on his county-wide referendum to
abolish the county Coroner as an elective
office and replace it with a
hired forensic professional similar
to a medical examiner. This common
sense reform should have been relatively uncontroversial, but it would have
denied the Republicans of a sinecure for
one of their political hacks and a
modest reserve of patronage plums. They flooded the county with large signs
reading “Fight corruption! Vote No” with no bother to explain how an appointed
coroner would be corrupt. They also
erected a billboard and distributed
other yard signs depicting Franks as a lying
Pinocchio, corrupt pol, and sexual predator. The coroner referendum lost.
Democrats
did not slate a candidate for Coroner since the referendum would have
eliminated the elected position before one could take office. They also didn’t slate candidates for States Attorney or Auditor. Their only county
wide candidate was Renee Overlee, a
long-time employee of the Circuit Court
Clerk’s office who faced her boss,
incumbent Katherine Keef. She was swamped by a 20% margin.
It
was not all bad news for local Democrats, however. Suzzane
Ness edged incumbent Allen
Skillicorn in an expensive battle that featured TV ad buys in the Chicago
market. Ness was strongly backed by
pro-choice groups her opponent who would ban abortions even in the cases of rape, incest, or to save the life
of the mother.
On
the County Board Paula Yensen, the dean of Board Democrats won re-election
from District 5. She led a list of exceptional women Board
candidates. Theresa Meshes in District 1
and Jessica Phillips in District 2 are apparent winners. Tanya
Jindrich in District 3 was only
178 votes behind in her race and could pull ahead when the late vote count is
finally released by the County clerk.
Democrats are poised for a gain of three seats on the Board—still a minority, but a stronger one.
For
me the most disappointing local losses were the three supremely qualified judicial
candidates—Beth Vonau, Jeannie Ridings, and Kimberly Crum Klein—each of whom ran
strong, community based campaigns to
break of the judicial old boys club.
