Let Us Speak of Cabbages and Kings of Coups and Insurrections

                                                                The Siege of the Capitol.

 

Like many of you the Old Man spent much of that day into the wee small hours of Wednesday morning mesmerized by the slo-mo train wreck of the insurrectionist invasion of the U.S Capitol and the rescue—at least for now—of democracy when Congress was finally able to complete the business of certifying the Electoral College votes of the states.  What follow are my somewhat disjointed and barely coherent thoughts about the bizarre events.

Since then I have tried repeatedly to sit down and write about one of the most historically significant events of my long life.  But events kept getting ahead of me rendering my musings and ramblings obsolete before the electrons could settle on my Word doc drafts.  Besides that others were writing much more compelling accounts and insightful analysis.

But now let me risk a few observations.

I told you so!  Not very polite or even helpful but I can’t resist reminding readers that I have been warning about the mounting chances of civil war or insurrection with the growth of a right-wing, paranoid, fact-resistant movement  that has moved from the fringe to a significant portion of the citizenry.  It was masterfully exploited by Randist billionaires, Astro-turf front groups, the Tea Party, white nationalists and militias, and Trump and his personality cult.  More recently in the wake of Trump’s refusal to accept the results of the Presidential election I anticipated that the Resident would encourage his supporters to descend on Washington to demand that the election results be overturned always just flirting around calling for actual violence but fully wanting and expecting it.  I only missed the timing.  I expected the hoards to try to disrupt or prevent the inauguration of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.  Now it appears the premature and abortive coup attempt will be an ample warning for a massive security operation on January 20 that will make mob action impossible.  Of course, I am not all that clairvoyant.  Many others reached the same conclusions based on real intelligence.

Scaling a Capitol wall/

Which brings us to my second thought.  Everyone in Washington should have been aware of the threat.  Certainly the 10 former Secretaries of Defense from both parties knew something was afoot when they issued their joint statement on Monday.  These old pros still have both formal and informal sources of information from the inelegance and national security communities.  They knew of specific threats based on social media chatter and other sources.  If they were keenly aware of the threat, so were Trump and his functionaries.  I am no fan of Militarized policing but any other administration would have reacted by surrounding the Capitol with thousands of law enforcement officers and National Guard troops in full battle armor, more than enough to repel a few thousand rag-tag hooligans.  Instead the small Capitol Police Force, whose ranks are filled by patronage appointments including those vouched for by Trumpist Congress Critters, in ordinary work-a-day uniforms sans helmets, shields, and body armor faced off against the mob with no reinforcement and quickly gave way.   More confirmation of this conclusion seems to emerge every hour. It was exactly what any seditious conspirator could want.

This summer the presence of Black Lives Mater protests in Washington provoked this show of force by unidentified Federal police.

Almost everyone with a whit of awareness has commented on the vast discrepancy the way the almost exclusively White mob was treated and overwhelming forceful and often violent responses to protests against deadly police violence against Blacks and other Peoples of Color. Were the Capitol Police really only lightly mobilized with no riot gear because “We were expecting a peaceful First Amendment protest” by White conservatives, This summer just the threat of Black Lives Matter protests drew hundreds of unidentified Federal police from several agencies is full military riot gear to guard the Lincoln Memorial.  And who can forget the military operation with gas, pepper spray, and batons unleashed on entirely peaceful demonstrators on Lafayette Square so the Trump could wave his Bible in front of a church.  Not to mention vicious attacks on demonstrators in dozens of cities all summer or the massive operations against Native American Water Protectors in 2018.

Armed troops confronted demonstrators during the March on the Pentagon in 1967,

My old friend and IWW fellow Worker David Levine, now in residence in Senegal recalled his experiences when thousands of Federal Troops and hundreds of Federal Marshals dealt with peaceful anti-Vietnam War protesters.  It is worth noting that equipment and tactics are both now vastly more sophisticated than those used back then.

I was arrested four times and had my head busted once for antiwar protests in DC. I saw elements of the 1st Marine Div. interdicting DuPont Circle in full battle gear. I’ve seen how effective the MPD and federal police can be in controlling protests. I’ve been in protests in DC where hundreds of thousands, not just thousands, of people were involved. Not once were government buildings, much less the Capitol itself, permitted by the police to be breached.

Yesterday’s attacks were no surprise. There was plenty of forewarning and time to prepare but little was done, apparently. 

What conclusions do we draw from this?

Widespread infiltration and/or control of law enforcement by ultra-rightists, perhaps? I never thought I’d be pointing to Germany as a shining example of how to deal with such a discovery. They purged their fascists! 

After the cavalry finally did arrive and clear the Capitol and grounds the talking heads on network and cable TV while by in large acknowledging that an insurrection and perhaps a coup attempt had occurred were quick to declare that it had been defeated as proved when the Senate and House reconvened and managed after some hours of theatrics to formally accept the results of the Electoral College.  Joe Biden will be inaugurated on January 20 in spite of Trumps delusions and the continued attempts to derail democracy, especially by a large majority of House Republicans.  During coverage of the debates the media lavished time, attention, and praise on Republicans including Mitch McConnell, Mitt Romney, Adam Kinzinger in the House, and even shape shifting Lindsey Graham while cutting away from most of the remarks of Democrats for blather between their analysts, experts, and usual echo chamber.

But was the coup really defeated?  I’m not so sure.  The pitiful comic-opera rebellion was in the end easily put down when coherent force was finally brought to bear against them.  Some frightened Congressional Republicans desperately back-pedaled and tried to distance themselves from treasonous Trump and the Yahoo brigades.  Some, like Romney and Kinzinger may even have been sincere.  Others, especially those from states where they rely on educated suburban White voters who have long been disgusted with Trump, took the gamble that it was safe, which is why support for challenging state results quickly crumbled in the Senate.  But in the House most Republicans from gerrymandered districts and more fearful of a primary challenge in 2022 than a serious General Election threat continued to spew the same conspiracy fantasies that the Mob believed.

 

Missouri Senator Josh Hawley, who has unhidden Presidential ambitions and was seen earlier giving a clenched fist salute to the mob around the Capitol, stuck by his challenge to Electoral College results after most of the objectors  folded their tents. 

A Republican split, formal or not, is the likely result.  So-called moderates would become a rump even if they regained control of party apparatus and the backing of traditional business interests.  In many states with unassailable Republican majorities in the legislature and in many Governors’ mansions, the Party will remain rabid.  It is also possible that there could be an open split with the moderates slipping quickly to third place among major American parties and a Trumpist Party a la the Argentine Peronists.

But more concerning is the depth and size of a dedicated insurrectionist minority for whom Trump was merely a convenient vehicle for recruitment.  Those folks are glad to be shed of moderates they call Republicans in Name Only (RINOs).  Almost completely ignored by the national media’s fixation on Washington were the scores of demonstrations the same day at state capitols including some which breached the buildings, several with large contingents of armed figures, and plenty of inflammatory rhetoric of shooting, hanging, and in one case guillotining “traitorous” elected officials and journalists. They all cheered news reports from Washington.

 

As ridiculous as the "Q Shaman" Jake Angeli and his costume were, QAnon emerged as a major force in the attempted coup.                                                                  

As the smoke has cleared over the last two days these people have only been encouraged to ever more radical and violent action and more defiant than ever.  The once obscure cult QAnon has emerged as a major player in ally with the Proud Boys, III percenters, various militias and Boogaloo Boys.  A leader of one such group declared on one of internet forums still open to them that “I’m not interested in Trump, I’m interested in war.”  They will drag along as many gullible Trump cultists as possible.  Many of them are ludicrous revolutionaries.  But core groups are actually heavily armed, well trained—many are current or recent military.  They will let the fat week-end warriors be a sacrificial diversion.

Not all right-wing militias are fat, overage, boozy wannabes.  Some are well armed and trained and include recent combat veterans.  

Calls are already going out for even bigger protests in Washington around the inauguration.  I suspect that there will not be numbers capable of overcoming “any police or military force” but the chaos created by probably multiple marches and action could distract from real possible threats—coordinated paramilitary assaults, assassination attempts, and terrorist attacks.

Whether or not any of that happens on Inauguration Day, the threat is not going away anytime soon.  Some commentators have called this week’s rampage just a “dress rehearsal” for a real coup.  Others warn that the next charismatic right wing leader will likely be much smarter, more sophisticated, better organized, and better funded than bumbling Donald.

Buckle up!  It ain’t over yet.