Election Day at Last--Civic Marathoners Ready to Collapse After the Finish

 

In a nation deeply and bitterly divided Election Day angst and exhaustion are the order of the day.  Will it be a dumpster fire for democracy? 

It's finally Election Day.  Here in Northern Illinois and adjacent states like vital Wisconsin it is raw. raining on and off, and blustery giving it a suitable Sturm und Drang cast that matches the anxiety so many of us feel.  In conventional wisdom these conditions suppress voter turn out.  People getting off of work did not like to stand in miserable lines outside jammed polling places or drive on rain slick pavement in the dark.  Casual or not deeply connected voters were discouraged.  Suburban Democrats in Red collar counties were notoriously easily daunted because they had faint hope that they had any chance for representation in important down ballot local races.  Increasingly right wing Republicans from the Tea Party to the MAGA crowd would, as I have observed many times over the years, "crawl through glass" to elect their candidates.  Advantage GOP.

But mail-in and early voting has changed that.  Democrats have pushed early voting here since Barack Obama's first election and the percentage of their supporters opting for it has grown steadily giving them an increasing edge.  In the last election Trump and his minions vilified early voting and falsely charged it as an opportunity for election fraud.  Instead, he urged his supporters to turn out on election day to insure that early returns before early and mail in ballots were counted to show election night leads.  

Trump thought otherwise this time out.  Now he encouraged his most loyal supporters to vote early to match or offset the Democratic advantage.  The question is, did the reprogramming actually work?  Older White men, the Orange Menace's prime demographic, still seem to prefer traditional balloting.

(Side note--as a member of that cohort I have to ask, just what the hell is wrong with men?)

Of course Illinois is one of the safest Blue States in the nation and has strengthening that tendency since the 1960 razor thin victory of John F. Kennedy.  Suburban Cook County and metropolitan collar counties which once nearly balanced the huge Democratic advantage in Chicago and conservative rural and Down State areas.  but many of those areas have turned purple or even flipped Blue like former bastions Lake and Dupage counties.  Even here in McHenry County where the Republicans still dominate local offices,  Obama won in 2008,  Joe Biden came withing a hair, and local voters have gone for Democrats for state constitutional offices, and U.S. Senate.

Neighbors and even family members are deeply split this election.  Personal relationships are ruptured adding yet more stress.

The difference has been women whose drift away from the GOP has accelerated and finally become a panicked stampede after the Trump puppets on the Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade.

The national the Gender Gap is wider than ever and higher percentages of women actually cast ballots than men.

The pundits and talking heads still beat the band that the electorate is still split nearly in half and flickers either side of a dead heat in the critical six or seven battleground states that hold the key for an Electoral College victory and they have polls to prove it and keeping us all on jagged edge.

I think those polls under represent the rage and determination of women who have been the targets of intense voter turnout campaigns.  They will out-perform expectations.  So will blocks of voters with other key issues--youth voters and anti-gun violence advocates, climate change, LGBTQ+ rights and safety, election integrity and saving democracy, and minority rights.  Some "experts" wave their hand at the potential extra margins provided by these citizens claiming "liberals all stick together on a broad range of issues with the overlap of concerns limiting extra advantage.  True, as far as it goes, but at least some of those "single issue" voters are less motivated when they are not immanently threatened. Much depends on whose ox gets gored.  And all of these folks are likely under reported in the polls.

In addition, the drumbeat of traditional Republican conservatives like Liz Cheney, George Wills, and former Trump Cabinet members and national security heavies,  seems to be eroding Trump's base.  Dems recognized that when they began to assure Republican women that they could safely and secretly vote differently from their husbands.  Many will boycott the top of the ticket or vote for Harris without tipping their hands to voracious and possibly dangerous neighbors.  Another edge to Democrats.

I boldly predict the Harris-Waltz ticket will out-preform exceptions, win the popular vote, carry most swing states, and even bring others into play as the late Des Moines Register poll that show Harris up by 3% in that deep Red state suggests.  In Pennsylvania 400,000 Puerto Rican voters, easily enough to swing the state, are reported outraged by the "Floating Island of Garbage" comments at last week's Madison Square Garden hate fest.  On the other hand hundreds of thousands of Muslims in Michigan could boycott the top of the Democratic ticket over the War in Gaza.

Finally, many voters are sick to death after years of Trump psychodrama and just want it to end. 

The influx of Harris support will likely carry down ballot giving Democrats a good chance of retaining control of the Senate and even re-capturing the House.

Of course, my record of electoral prognostication is somewhat sketchy.

Here in McHenry County many Democrats will gather for this watch party at the historic Woodstock Opera House, but we won's know the final outcome of the Presidential election when the venue closes at 11 pm.

It could be days before the final results are known because of delays in counting mail in early ballots and likely Trump court challenges meant to once again undermine faith in election integrity and results evoking traumatic memories of four years ago.

There is nothing left for us to do but suck it up and be ready for a wild ride.