The Day After the Election 2024—Darkness Descends

 

I was wrong.  Dead wrong.  Everything I wrote and posted yesterday was an illusion.  This morning, I’m stunned and shattered.  I can hardly comprehend the catastrophe that has befallen us let alone begin to parse out and dispassionately analyze or explain it.  

I have endured dozens of political losses over the decades and a handful of satisfying wins.  My motto, oft repeated, has been “Suffer, grieve, suck it up, look to the long arc of justice, and go back to work and battle again.”

I just can’t find that resilience this morning.  This seems like the final battle against Sauron at the Black Gate of Mordor.  As desperate armies clash there is no Frodo Baggins to cast the One Ring of Power into the Eye of Mordor to save Middle Earth.  Permanent darkness and death and the  Edenic Shire will fall with all the rest. 

Or pick your own apocalypse metaphor. 

The morning after the first coming of the Dark One was also tough, but not as soul crushing as this.  In the little poem I scribbled there was at least  a glorious morning on which to mourn.  This year it is a glum November dying kind of Day.

                                                        The Day After the Election
                                                                November 9, 2016

    The day after the election—
            golden, crisp
            azure sky.
     Carrion crows
            from the tips
            of dying trees
            cannot keep silent.
    The calendar says
    Kristallnacht…

    —Patrick Murfin

Kristallnacht.

Election Day at Last--Civic Marathoners Ready to Collapse After the Finish

 

In a nation deeply and bitterly divided Election Day angst and exhaustion are the order of the day.  Will it be a dumpster fire for democracy? 

It's finally Election Day.  Here in Northern Illinois and adjacent states like vital Wisconsin it is raw. raining on and off, and blustery giving it a suitable Sturm und Drang cast that matches the anxiety so many of us feel.  In conventional wisdom these conditions suppress voter turn out.  People getting off of work did not like to stand in miserable lines outside jammed polling places or drive on rain slick pavement in the dark.  Casual or not deeply connected voters were discouraged.  Suburban Democrats in Red collar counties were notoriously easily daunted because they had faint hope that they had any chance for representation in important down ballot local races.  Increasingly right wing Republicans from the Tea Party to the MAGA crowd would, as I have observed many times over the years, "crawl through glass" to elect their candidates.  Advantage GOP.

But mail-in and early voting has changed that.  Democrats have pushed early voting here since Barack Obama's first election and the percentage of their supporters opting for it has grown steadily giving them an increasing edge.  In the last election Trump and his minions vilified early voting and falsely charged it as an opportunity for election fraud.  Instead, he urged his supporters to turn out on election day to insure that early returns before early and mail in ballots were counted to show election night leads.  

Trump thought otherwise this time out.  Now he encouraged his most loyal supporters to vote early to match or offset the Democratic advantage.  The question is, did the reprogramming actually work?  Older White men, the Orange Menace's prime demographic, still seem to prefer traditional balloting.

(Side note--as a member of that cohort I have to ask, just what the hell is wrong with men?)

Of course Illinois is one of the safest Blue States in the nation and has strengthening that tendency since the 1960 razor thin victory of John F. Kennedy.  Suburban Cook County and metropolitan collar counties which once nearly balanced the huge Democratic advantage in Chicago and conservative rural and Down State areas.  but many of those areas have turned purple or even flipped Blue like former bastions Lake and Dupage counties.  Even here in McHenry County where the Republicans still dominate local offices,  Obama won in 2008,  Joe Biden came withing a hair, and local voters have gone for Democrats for state constitutional offices, and U.S. Senate.

Neighbors and even family members are deeply split this election.  Personal relationships are ruptured adding yet more stress.

The difference has been women whose drift away from the GOP has accelerated and finally become a panicked stampede after the Trump puppets on the Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade.

The national the Gender Gap is wider than ever and higher percentages of women actually cast ballots than men.

The pundits and talking heads still beat the band that the electorate is still split nearly in half and flickers either side of a dead heat in the critical six or seven battleground states that hold the key for an Electoral College victory and they have polls to prove it and keeping us all on jagged edge.

I think those polls under represent the rage and determination of women who have been the targets of intense voter turnout campaigns.  They will out-perform expectations.  So will blocks of voters with other key issues--youth voters and anti-gun violence advocates, climate change, LGBTQ+ rights and safety, election integrity and saving democracy, and minority rights.  Some "experts" wave their hand at the potential extra margins provided by these citizens claiming "liberals all stick together on a broad range of issues with the overlap of concerns limiting extra advantage.  True, as far as it goes, but at least some of those "single issue" voters are less motivated when they are not immanently threatened. Much depends on whose ox gets gored.  And all of these folks are likely under reported in the polls.

In addition, the drumbeat of traditional Republican conservatives like Liz Cheney, George Wills, and former Trump Cabinet members and national security heavies,  seems to be eroding Trump's base.  Dems recognized that when they began to assure Republican women that they could safely and secretly vote differently from their husbands.  Many will boycott the top of the ticket or vote for Harris without tipping their hands to voracious and possibly dangerous neighbors.  Another edge to Democrats.

I boldly predict the Harris-Waltz ticket will out-preform exceptions, win the popular vote, carry most swing states, and even bring others into play as the late Des Moines Register poll that show Harris up by 3% in that deep Red state suggests.  In Pennsylvania 400,000 Puerto Rican voters, easily enough to swing the state, are reported outraged by the "Floating Island of Garbage" comments at last week's Madison Square Garden hate fest.  On the other hand hundreds of thousands of Muslims in Michigan could boycott the top of the Democratic ticket over the War in Gaza.

Finally, many voters are sick to death after years of Trump psychodrama and just want it to end. 

The influx of Harris support will likely carry down ballot giving Democrats a good chance of retaining control of the Senate and even re-capturing the House.

Of course, my record of electoral prognostication is somewhat sketchy.

Here in McHenry County many Democrats will gather for this watch party at the historic Woodstock Opera House, but we won's know the final outcome of the Presidential election when the venue closes at 11 pm.

It could be days before the final results are known because of delays in counting mail in early ballots and likely Trump court challenges meant to once again undermine faith in election integrity and results evoking traumatic memories of four years ago.

There is nothing left for us to do but suck it up and be ready for a wild ride.

 

2024 General Election Early Voting Opens Thursday in McHenry County

The new McHenry County Election Center on Eastwood Drive (Rt. 47) in Woodstock will open for early in person voting on Thursday, September 26.

Note—A tip-o’-the-hat to tireless Ed Gogol for this critical reminder for McHenry County voters.  Heretic, Rebel, a Thing to Flout echoes his endorsements.

Early in-person voting starts this Thursday, September 26, at the new McHenry County Election Center at 410 South Eastwood Drive (Route 47) in Woodstock.  The Election Center will be open from 8:30 am to 4:30 pm Monday through Friday.  It’s at the north end of the same shopping center where the Secretary of State’s office is.  Turn in by the Taco Bell.

Then beginning October 21, eleven additional early voting locations will be open around the county.  Any McHenry County registered voter can vote at any early-voting location.  There’s even Saturday voting hours.  Here’s the full list of early voting locations and hours.

Sample ballots are now available on the County Clerk’s website .  And if you’ve applied for a Vote-By-Mail ballot (either one-time or permanently), watch your mailbox, as they should be arriving shortly.  For full details on everything related to voting, check the updated Vote page at mchenrydems.org.

I’m sure like me you’ll be proud to cast your ballot for our great Democratic candidates.

I’m an emotional dude and may have difficulty keeping it together when I cast my vote for Kamala Harris.  I will think of all the amazing women in my life and I shudder to think of the calamities that will befall us if the Orange Menace gets back in.  The parallels to Germany in the 1930’s could not be more apt. 

I’m proud of our Illinois congressional delegation and look forward to returning Brad Schneider, Jan Schakowsky, and Bill Foster to Washington.

I look forward to increasing our pro-choice Democratic majorities in the Illinois House by re-electing the amazing Suzanne Ness, and by electing Mary Mahady, Maria Peterson, Randi Olson, and Peter Janko. 

County-wide, I will celebrate when we elect the awesome Kelli Wegener as County Board Chair, and the fantastic Chris Kalapodis as Coroner.  Don’t be fooled by all the signs for Michael Rein.  He’s a chiropractor, not a medical doctor, and he’s a gun nut (I’ve seen him at the County Fair helping to distribute lawn signs showing an assault rifle.) 

And wherever you live in McHenry County, there’s a great Democratic candidate for County Board.  I look forward to re-electing Theresa Meshes in District 1 and Lou Ness in District 7, and to electing John Collins in District 2, Rester Dogboe in District 3, Brian Meyers in District 4, Steve Firak in District 5, Arne Waltmire in District 6, Dawn Milarski in District 8, and Dawn Jordi Ellison in District 9.

You can find links to all of our great Democratic candidates at our Candidates Page.  And it’s definitely not too late for your financial contributions to make a big difference. 

Let them play in their own sandbox. For McHenry County Auditor and States Attorney, Republican candidates are running unopposed.  That doesn’t mean we should vote for them – it’s okay not to vote in these races.  As our former Chairwoman Kristina Zahorik is fond of saying, “let them play in their own sandbox.”  The Republican Party of today bears no resemblance to the party of Lincoln, and no self-respecting person should run for a party that puts Donald Trump at the top of the ticket. 

I feel the same way about the Judicial races and Judicial retention ballots.  The Republican party has gone beyond the pale, and I cannot bring myself to vote for anyone who calls themself a Republican:  No matter how “qualified” they may be, they’re helping to send our country to a very dark place.  You may wish to check out the recommendations of the Illinois State Bar Association.  In particular I recommend voting not to retain Michael J. Chmiel.

Vote Yes for the McHenry County Conservation District.  At the bottom of your ballot you’ll notice a very important proposition regarding the portion of your property taxes that goes to the McHenry County Conservation District.  If approved, annual taxes on a property with $300,000 assessed valuation would increase by about $27.  Note, however, that despite this proposition, taxes for the Conservation District are expected to decrease dramatically in 2026 when certain bonds are paid off.

The many parks comprising our Conservation District are jewels of our fair county, and not just for recreation and scenic beauty.  Think habitat for native plants, insects, and wildlife.  And most critically, think replenishing the precious groundwater on which we all depend.  I urge a yes vote for the Conservation District.  Here’s full details and an informative video.

Vote Yes on the three Advisory Questions.  At the very top of your ballot you’ll find three advisory questions:  (1) asking whether candidates should be subject to civil penalties if they interfere or attempt to interfere with an election worker’s official duties; (2) asking whether people with incomes greater than one million dollars should pay an additional 3% on the part greater than that amount, for the purpose of providing property tax relief; and (3) asking whether medical insurance companies should be required to pay for assisted reproductive treatments including in-vitro fertilization. 

Please vote yes for all three.  The second one in particular highlights the hypocrisy of Republican politicians who campaign as “tax cutters.”  What they really mean is that rich people shouldn’t pay taxes.  Everybody else should pay, just not the rich.