Showing posts with label Kamala Harris. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kamala Harris. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 5, 2024

Election Day at Last--Civic Marathoners Ready to Collapse After the Finish

Newspeak House US Election Night Marathon · Luma 

In a nation deeply and bitterly divided Election Day angst and exhaustion are the order of the day.  Will it be a dumpster fire for democracy? 

It's finally Election Day.  Here in Northern Illinois and adjacent states like vital Wisconsin it is raw. raining on and off, and blustery giving it a suitable Sturm und Drang cast that matches the anxiety so many of us feel.  In conventional wisdom these conditions suppress voter turn out.  People getting off of work did not like to stand in miserable lines outside jammed polling places or drive on rain slick pavement in the dark.  Casual or not deeply connected voters were discouraged.  Suburban Democrats in Red collar counties were notoriously easily daunted because they had faint hope that they had any chance for representation in important down ballot local races.  Increasingly right wing Republicans from the Tea Party to the MAGA crowd would, as I have observed many times over the years, "crawl through glass" to elect their candidates.  Advantage GOP.

But mail-in and early voting has changed that.  Democrats have pushed early voting here since Barack Obama's first election and the percentage of their supporters opting for it has grown steadily giving them an increasing edge.  In the last election Trump and his minions vilified early voting and falsely charged it as an opportunity for election fraud.  Instead, he urged his supporters to turn out on election day to insure that early returns before early and mail in ballots were counted to show election night leads.  

Trump thought otherwise this time out.  Now he encouraged his most loyal supporters to vote early to match or offset the Democratic advantage.  The question is, did the reprogramming actually work?  Older White men, the Orange Menace's prime demographic, still seem to prefer traditional balloting.

(Side note--as a member of that cohort I have to ask, just what the hell is wrong with men?)

Of course Illinois is one of the safest Blue States in the nation and has strengthening that tendency since the 1960 razor thin victory of John F. Kennedy.  Suburban Cook County and metropolitan collar counties which once nearly balanced the huge Democratic advantage in Chicago and conservative rural and Down State areas.  but many of those areas have turned purple or even flipped Blue like former bastions Lake and Dupage counties.  Even here in McHenry County where the Republicans still dominate local offices,  Obama won in 2008,  Joe Biden came withing a hair, and local voters have gone for Democrats for state constitutional offices, and U.S. Senate.

Neighbors and even family members are deeply split this election.  Personal relationships are ruptured adding yet more stress.

The difference has been women whose drift away from the GOP has accelerated and finally become a panicked stampede after the Trump puppets on the Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade.

The national the Gender Gap is wider than ever and higher percentages of women actually cast ballots than men.

The pundits and talking heads still beat the band that the electorate is still split nearly in half and flickers either side of a dead heat in the critical six or seven battleground states that hold the key for an Electoral College victory and they have polls to prove it and keeping us all on jagged edge.

I think those polls under represent the rage and determination of women who have been the targets of intense voter turnout campaigns.  They will out-perform expectations.  So will blocks of voters with other key issues--youth voters and anti-gun violence advocates, climate change, LGBTQ+ rights and safety, election integrity and saving democracy, and minority rights.  Some "experts" wave their hand at the potential extra margins provided by these citizens claiming "liberals all stick together on a broad range of issues with the overlap of concerns limiting extra advantageTrue, as far as it goes, but at least some of those "single issue" voters are less motivated when they are not immanently threatened. Much depends on whose ox gets gored.  And all of these folks are likely under reported in the polls.

In addition, the drumbeat of traditional Republican conservatives like Liz Cheney, George Wills, and former Trump Cabinet members and national security heavies,  seems to be eroding Trump's base.  Dems recognized that when they began to assure Republican women that they could safely and secretly vote differently from their husbands.  Many will boycott the top of the ticket or vote for Harris without tipping their hands to voracious and possibly dangerous neighbors.  Another edge to Democrats.

I boldly predict the Harris-Waltz ticket will out-preform exceptions, win the popular vote, carry most swing states, and even bring others into play as the late Des Moines Register poll that show Harris up by 3% in that deep Red state suggests.  In Pennsylvania 400,000 Puerto Rican voters, easily enough to swing the state, are reported outraged by the "Floating Island of Garbage" comments at last week's Madison Square Garden hate fest.  On the other hand hundreds of thousands of Muslims in Michigan could boycott the top of the Democratic ticket over the War in Gaza.

Finally, many voters are sick to death after years of Trump psychodrama and just want it to end. 

The influx of Harris support will likely carry down ballot giving Democrats a good chance of retaining control of the Senate and even re-capturing the House.

Of course, my record of electoral prognostication is somewhat sketchy.

Here in McHenry County many Democrats will gather for this watch party at the historic Woodstock Opera House, but we won's know the final outcome of the Presidential election when the venue closes at 11 pm.

It could be days before the final results are known because of delays in counting mail in early ballots and likely Trump court challenges meant to once again undermine faith in election integrity and results evoking traumatic memories of four years ago.

There is nothing left for us to do but suck it up and be ready for a wild ride.



 

Wednesday, September 25, 2024

2024 General Election Early Voting Opens Thursday in McHenry County

The new McHenry County Election Center on Eastwood Drive (Rt. 47) in Woodstock will open for early in person voting on Thursday, September 26.

Note—A tip-o’-the-hat to tireless Ed Gogol for this critical reminder for McHenry County voters.  Heretic, Rebel, a Thing to Flout echoes his endorsements.

Early in-person voting starts this Thursday, September 26, at the new McHenry County Election Center at 410 South Eastwood Drive (Route 47) in Woodstock.  The Election Center will be open from 8:30 am to 4:30 pm Monday through Friday.  It’s at the north end of the same shopping center where the Secretary of State’s office is.  Turn in by the Taco Bell.

Then beginning October 21, eleven additional early voting locations will be open around the county.  Any McHenry County registered voter can vote at any early-voting location.  There’s even Saturday voting hours.  Here’s the full list of early voting locations and hours.

Sample ballots are now available on the County Clerk’s website .  And if you’ve applied for a Vote-By-Mail ballot (either one-time or permanently), watch your mailbox, as they should be arriving shortly.  For full details on everything related to voting, check the updated Vote page at mchenrydems.org.

I’m sure like me you’ll be proud to cast your ballot for our great Democratic candidates.

I’m an emotional dude and may have difficulty keeping it together when I cast my vote for Kamala Harris.  I will think of all the amazing women in my life and I shudder to think of the calamities that will befall us if the Orange Menace gets back in.  The parallels to Germany in the 1930s could not be more apt. 

I’m proud of our Illinois congressional delegation and look forward to returning Brad Schneider, Jan Schakowsky, and Bill Foster to Washington.

I look forward to increasing our pro-choice Democratic majorities in the Illinois House by re-electing the amazing Suzanne Ness, and by electing Mary Mahady, Maria Peterson, Randi Olson, and Peter Janko. 

County-wide, I will celebrate when we elect the awesome Kelli Wegener as County Board Chair, and the fantastic Chris Kalapodis as Coroner.  Don’t be fooled by all the signs for Michael Rein.  He’s a chiropractor, not a medical doctor, and he’s a gun nut (I’ve seen him at the County Fair helping to distribute lawn signs showing an assault rifle.) 

And wherever you live in McHenry County, there’s a great Democratic candidate for County Board.  I look forward to re-electing Theresa Meshes in District 1 and Lou Ness in District 7, and to electing John Collins in District 2, Rester Dogboe in District 3, Brian Meyers in District 4, Steve Firak in District 5, Arne Waltmire in District 6, Dawn Milarski in District 8, and Dawn Jordi Ellison in District 9.

You can find links to all of our great Democratic candidates at our Candidates Page.  And it’s definitely not too late for your financial contributions to make a big difference. 

Let them play in their own sandbox. For McHenry County Auditor and States Attorney, Republican candidates are running unopposed.  That doesn’t mean we should vote for them – it’s okay not to vote in these races.  As our former Chairwoman Kristina Zahorik is fond of saying, “let them play in their own sandbox.”  The Republican Party of today bears no resemblance to the party of Lincoln, and no self-respecting person should run for a party that puts Donald Trump at the top of the ticket. 

I feel the same way about the Judicial races and Judicial retention ballots.  The Republican party has gone beyond the pale, and I cannot bring myself to vote for anyone who calls themself a Republican:  No matter how “qualified” they may be, they’re helping to send our country to a very dark place.  You may wish to check out the recommendations of the Illinois State Bar Association.  In particular I recommend voting not to retain Michael J. Chmiel.

Vote Yes for the McHenry County Conservation District.  At the bottom of your ballot you’ll notice a very important proposition regarding the portion of your property taxes that goes to the McHenry County Conservation District.  If approved, annual taxes on a property with $300,000 assessed valuation would increase by about $27.  Note, however, that despite this proposition, taxes for the Conservation District are expected to decrease dramatically in 2026 when certain bonds are paid off.

The many parks comprising our Conservation District are jewels of our fair county, and not just for recreation and scenic beauty.  Think habitat for native plants, insects, and wildlife.  And most critically, think replenishing the precious groundwater on which we all depend.  I urge a yes vote for the Conservation District.  Here’s full details and an informative video.

Vote Yes on the three Advisory Questions.  At the very top of your ballot you’ll find three advisory questions:  (1) asking whether candidates should be subject to civil penalties if they interfere or attempt to interfere with an election worker’s official duties; (2) asking whether people with incomes greater than one million dollars should pay an additional 3% on the part greater than that amount, for the purpose of providing property tax relief; and (3) asking whether medical insurance companies should be required to pay for assisted reproductive treatments including in-vitro fertilization. 

Please vote yes for all three.  The second one in particular highlights the hypocrisy of Republican politicians who campaign as “tax cutters.”  What they really mean is that rich people shouldn’t pay taxes.  Everybody else should pay, just not the rich.

 

Saturday, September 14, 2024

About that Debate a Few Days Late and a Dollar Short

 

Trump and Harris on the ABC moderated Presidential Debate.  Note the ex-Resident''s subdued hair and make up and Harris's confident smile.

Note--This is one of the posts that ran away with me and took two days to finish.  Sorry for the inconvenience.

So, about Tuesday night’s big event, the one everyone is still talking about.  As a part time petty pundit on this blog I guess I should add my two-cents.  I doubt if commentary I make will be new or surprising to anyone who has been paying attention.  No doubt our astute readers are among those avidly engaged.  Here are some random observations.

While Vice President Kamala Harris spent five days in private and intense preparation to face the former White House resident.  He, meanwhile, couldn’t be bothered to be coached or practice again stand-ins for the Veep.  The best they could do was get him to sit down for a couple of hours and listen to aids at the other end of the table casually bantered about issues and policy hoping that something would magically stick.  Donal Trump was, as usual, supremely confident that he could go out and show ‘em his old buck and wing, that his adoring legions would lap up every lie and rant, and that the magnetism of his personality would shock and awe not only his opponent but the media and cultural elites who have mocked and scorned him. 

About the only real impact his staff and advisors could have was on the literal cosmetics of the presentation.  Aware that without Joe Biden their candidate was the undeniable old man of the race, they had to try for a more youthful and vigorous look.  Fat chance of that.  The best that they could do was fire the retired Earl Scheib spray painter who used to apply his orange finish and replace him with a talented mortuary cosmetologist who applied a lighter base touched-up lips for an almost alive look.  Instead of his old golden retriever comb-over/pompadour now salted by a touch of gray as seen in recent campaign appearances he took to the platform with a subdued champaign color do.  There has been some debate about how much of that color was due to his hair stylists and how much was a product of studio lighting.

But such tinkering was wasted on this sows ear.  He entered the stage with a dissolute wave at a non-existent crowd and quickly took up position behind his podium with a scowl firmly affixed to his face.

The opening handshake was a test of dominance. Harris's confident stride up to Trump behind his podium and cheery introduction caught Trump off  his guard.

Harris strode onto the stage with a confident smile, mane of hair shining like a shampoo ad, a slim black suite, and killer shoes.  She by-passed her lectern and crossed the space between them to offer her hand to Trump.  At first, I thought he was pulling a power move to force Harris to come to him.  But later I learned that the initiative was all hers—as she grasped his hand, she introduced herself, “Hi, I’m Kamala Harris!”  The two had never met.  So much for the famed Trumpian intimidation.”

I watched on NBC since official host ABC is currently unavailable on my streaming service due to a contract dispute with Disney.  During the televised commentary before the debate began hot shot political reporters and guest pundits agreed that Harris needed to introduce herself to the sliver of undecided voters who some how “don’t  know anything about her.”  They noted that her experience as a prosecutor would stand her well but warned her not to engage him in a battle of charges and counter charges  She should hold herself aloof from the circus next door lest she should appear—unspoken wink/nod—bitchy instead of commanding.

As for Trump the same gaggle of newsies and candidate surrogates,  there was nothing they could do but roll their eyes in one fashion or another.  Trump could not be restrained by any caution to stick to issues and hold off on invective, and contain his bent for ridiculous stories.  Trump would be Trump and it was only a matter of time before the wheels came off.  The MAGA designates and embarrassed looking Republican office holders, could only hope that his invincible base would hold and that racism and misogyny would drive White men into the camp.

Harris came out briefly introduced herself as mostly a daughter of the middle class who understood the struggles of families striving to keep their heads above water while encouraging the next generation to succeed.  The contrast to the tycoon who started out with a $400,000+ gift from his land lord father; bankrupted businesses; cheated and chiseled on customers, contractors, and employees; committed bank fraud and a laundry list of indictable offenses in multiple jurisdictions; has been convicted of felonies; was impeached by the House of Representatives for his role in the January 11 Capitol siege; and, by the way has been ordered to pay millions to a victim of his sexual predatory behavior.  There it was all in one dump.

The Trump whopper.

Donald took the bait and was off and running launching a blistering personal attack on Harris and then accusing her of responsibility for “millions” of criminal/psycho/diseased/terrorist hoards overwhelming real Americans.  Harris looked on with a satisfied smile.  From then on she would poke him with a stick and he would go wildly more out of control.  Most notably, she got him to repeat as gospel a story pushed on the far fringes of right wing social media and promoted by Veep candidate J.D. Vance that immigrants were killing and eating pet dogs and cats in Springfield, Ohio.  Harris roared with laughter.  Moderator David Muir was quick to fact check the claim reporting that the city manager said flatly that there had been no reports of anything of the kind.  Flustered, Trump could on repeat that “I saw on TV…”

In between Trump eruptions Harris dodged some direct questions about her evolving policy views over time that would have required her to throw Joe Biden or some long-time allies under the bus, but she was able to turn aside Trump’s claim she is a Marxist by staking moderate ground in the one proposal she detailed—an aid to entrepreneurs grant program for start-up small business.  She also made defending and preserving womens reproductive health and LGBTQ+ rights, advocating sensible gun regulations, and preserving democratic government and the rule of law—all positions popular with critical swing voters, especially middle-class women and young people but an anathema to religious and cultural conservatives

Trump called Harris a Marxist echoing this AI fake circulating in the MAGA universe.

Abortion was such a thorny issue for Trump the he denied supporting a national abortion ban and bragged that his Supreme Court appointments, had over-turned Roe v. Wade  to return the issue to the states “like everyone wanted.”  Not only did such waffling risk offending abortion ban absolutists, but it patently failed to placate anxious women.  Flailing in desperation he let loose with another wild whopper the “post birth” abortions would be legal in Tim Waltzs Minnesota and other states.  That drew a quick fact check by the other moderator—no such laws are on the books or even contemplated.

Trump's post-birth abortion lie.  Harris extended her already considerable lead among women.

On foreign policy, Trump tried to blame the deaths of Americans during the evacuation of Kabul on the Biden-Harris administration and charged that her election would lead directly to the destruction of Israel.  Threading the needle between her long-standing support of Isreal and calling for an end to the brutal war on the people of Gaza was a challenge for Harris but seemed sane and rational.  On the counter attack Harris roasted Trump for his coziness and fealty to Vladamir Putin, admiration of strongmen dictators around the world, his attacks on NATO and other long-time allies, and his support for Russian aggression against Ukraine.  In response Trump called Hungarian neo-fascist strongman Viktor Orbán as a character witness.  Harris could have slapped the podium and shouted, “I rest my case.”

Trump's character witness--Viktor Orbán, Hungarian neo-fascist strongman.

But the debate, such as it was, continued through wrangling about the economy.  In closing Trump had only spittle and snarl left which he let out like an un-tied balloon—a lot of hot air propelling a fancy flight before collapsing on the floor empty and spent.  Harris was cool and poised.

The gaggles of talking heads in the post-debate analysis were in semi-stunned agreement that Harris not only won the debate, but handed Trump his ass.  Designated MAGA shills were at a loss to find a way to declare victory or even to dismiss the damage caused by their candidate’s meltdown.  Various panels of “undecided voters” on network and cable lopsidedly thought Harris was the victor and when asked some said the debate had changed their minds.  In the unkindest cut of all Fox News flatly admitted that the debate was a disaster for Trump.

A CNN instant poll showed the win over replacement surge by Harris.

Then  Taylor Swift identifying herself as a childless cat lady endorsed Harris and nearly melted down  social media.  Even more impressive or ominous depending on your point of view, 400,000 people flowed Swift’s link to Code Blue register to vote.

Overnight polls showed Harris with a significant bump over Trump nationally.  But the popular vote, no matter how lop-sided, is meaningless in the Electoral College where Republicans have institutional, locked in advantage.  The election will hang on a half dozen or so results in swing states.  Harris got a narrower boost in those states to take slender lead or tie.

Democrats and  critical target voters were ecstatic and more than a little smug flooding the internet with triumphant memes.  Many seemed to think that the debate was a knock out punch and that Harris could, you should pardon my expression, waltz to the Whitehouse.  But then they got a splash of cold water when a new Michigan poll showed Harris once again lagging Trump.  The debate had changed no minds.  It also exposed a weakness for Harris in the state with the largest and most important block of Muslim-Americans.  Support in that critical community is tepid at best and many leaders are urging boycotting the Presidential race this November.  For similar reasons many of the huge numbers of voters and potential voters in the state’s large universities, may also sit-out over Gaza.

Harris supporters flooded social media with post-debate triumphalism.

The Harris campaign did reap a huge swell in campaign donations, much of it from relatively small and first time doners.  The top of the ticket and major surrogates are doubling down on campaign swings in the contested states.  Harris practically qualifies for residency in Pennsylvania.

On the other side, Trump and his allies have doubled down on the most ridiculous and easily disproved lie—the unhinged migrants eat pets story.  They have specifically blamed Hattians and are attacking the city of Springfield, Ohio.  Bomb threats have been made and militia chatter suggests going to the city to take things into their own hands.  Hattians, many of whom have experienced political violence at home, are fearful of random street assaults, as well as attacks on schools and places that have sheltered and supported them.  On Friday Trump called a news conference to announce that he would begin his mass deportations in Springfield if elected.

Buckle down, it’s still going to be a bumpy ride.